Shares of City Developments, currently embroiled in a heated internal conflict that has spilled into the courts, experienced a significant decline of 28 cents, or 5.47%, when trading resumed today. Trading for the company’s shares had been temporarily halted on February 26, when a scheduled results briefing was abruptly cancelled, and news broke later in the day that there was a rift between executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng and his son, group CEO Sherman Kwek.
In response to these reports, CDL released a statement on March 3 affirming that while the company will not comment on the validity of the allegations being made by both parties, they are aware that these allegations are currently the subject of ongoing court proceedings. The company reassured shareholders that its business operations remain unaffected and that Sherman Kwek will continue to serve as the Group Chief Executive Officer until a board resolution is made to change company leadership.
However, in light of this boardroom and family dispute, analysts have downgraded their calls on CDL and have adjusted their target prices. UOB Kay Hian’s Adrian Loh lowered his rating from “buy” to “hold” in a February 27 report, pointing out that the company’s FY2024 numbers had missed both his and consensus estimates. The public conflict between CDL’s leadership overshadowed any positive performance the company had achieved and Loh believes that this will have a negative impact on the company’s stock performance in the foreseeable future.
Loh’s revised target price of $4.60, down from $7, was based on CDL’s five-year average price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.72 times, pegged to 2 standard deviations below the average. He emphasized that without a resolution to the leadership dispute and more active capital recycling, CDL’s share price is unlikely to reach these levels anytime soon. Loh also suggested that professionalizing the management, resolving the factions within the board, reconciling the family members, or selling the company could provide some relief for shareholders in the short term.
In a separate report released on February 27, DBS Group Research analysts Derek Tan and Tabitha Foo acknowledged that investor sentiment will be dampened by the ongoing dispute, but they believe that the company’s fundamentals remain intact. In fact, they noted that CDL is currently trading at a very attractive valuation of 0.5 times P/B (with book value at cost) and 0.3 times P/RNAV, which is even lower than the lows seen during the Global Financial Crisis. Tan and Foo maintained their “buy” rating on CDL, but lowered their target price from $10.50 to $6.70 based on a 60% discount to RNAV, as opposed to their previous valuation of a 35% discount. They also pointed out that the current discount for the real estate sector as a whole is 50%.
Similarly, OCBC Investment Research maintained their “buy” rating on CDL but with a reduced fair value of $6.02, down from $6.57. They based their valuation on a wider RNAV discount of 60%, as opposed to the 45% previously used. They also cautioned that the ongoing dispute could lead to uncertainty over CDL’s outlook and potentially affect the company’s stock performance until the matter is resolved.
Citi Research analyst Brandon Lee, in a February 26 report, pointed out that it’s difficult to quantify the potential impact of the ongoing disputes on CDL, but he believes that uncertainty surrounding the board and company leadership, coupled with the lengthiness of any potential court case, could keep CDL’s share price under pressure in the near term. However, Lee also noted that CDL is currently under-owned by investors, and any positive resolution to the dispute could have a major impact on the company’s share price in the long term. This led Lee to maintain his “buy” call with a $9.51 target price, based on his view that CDL’s current stock price, which is less than a third of its book value, presents a significant buying opportunity.
In a report released on February 26, JP Morgan analysts Mervin Song and Terence M Khi referred to the conflict at CDL as a “dynastic discord” that has been building up over several years, due to underperformance and public disagreements among members of the extended Kwek family. Despite this, they expressed hope that a positive resolution can be reached and that the family can be reconciled. However, they did lower their target price on CDL from $6.05 to $4.85, based on a 60% discount to their RNAV estimate of $12.10 per share.…